How to Evaluate ORB Profit Targets and Hit Rates

TP1 measures the first objective

TP1 often answers whether the setup produced enough follow-through to justify the initial risk. It may have the highest hit rate, but that does not automatically make it the best exit for every plan.

Later targets describe the tail

TP2 through TP5 show how often the move continued. These levels help separate frequent small moves from less frequent trend extensions and can inform partial exits, trailing logic, and expectations for the remainder of a position.

Hit rate is not realized performance

A target can be touched without a trader capturing the full move. Entry quality, slippage, scaling, stop movement, and discretion change realized R. Report target hits and realized outcomes as different measurements.

Keep the ladder tied to one rule set

Targets should be calculated from a clearly defined range or risk unit. If the stop or entry model changes, the target distances and historical sample must be rebuilt rather than compared as if nothing changed.

Read the denominator before the percentage

A statement such as ‘TP1 hit 60%’ is incomplete. The reader needs to know whether the denominator is all market days, breakout days, qualified entries, one direction, or only sessions that passed additional filters. The date range and number of observations belong beside the percentage.

An illustrative result of 6 hits in 10 trades and 120 hits in 200 trades produces the same percentage, but not the same amount of evidence. Neither figure predicts the next trade.

Compare exits with realized-path assumptions

A target ladder can support several exit models, such as all-out at TP1, partial exits, or a runner. Each model needs an explicit fill rule, stop-adjustment rule, and treatment for gaps or candles that cross more than one level. Do not infer realized return from target touches alone.