Risk per trade
$125
0.50% of account
Profit & risk planner
Profit is an outcome.Risk is the input.
Translate a historical win rate and reward-to-risk profile into a transparent expectancy scenario—then pressure-test the downside before taking a trade.
Interactive scenario
Model the math before the trade.
Adjust every assumption. The output updates immediately so you can see whether the edge comes from win rate, payoff, risk, or unrealistic inputs.
Scenario inputs
Build a risk model
Enter statistics from a consistent rule set. Mixing strategies, timeframes, or discretionary exceptions makes the scenario less meaningful.
Illustrative output
Expectancy scenario
Expectancy
+0.38R
Before estimated costs
Break-even rate
40.0%
At the entered win/loss ratio
Estimated costs
$40
20 trades per month
Illustrative monthly outcome
$898
Gross expectancy applied to the entered trade count, minus the entered per-trade cost. Slippage, taxes, changing position size, and market impact are not modeled.
Gross scenario
$938 / month
Five-loss sequence
-$625
A disciplined profit process
Three checks before scaling.
01
Protect the downside
Choose the dollar risk before thinking about the possible reward. A model is only useful if a losing sequence remains survivable.
02
Measure expectancy
Win rate has to be read beside average win and average loss. A high win rate can still lose money when losses are too large.
03
Track realized results
Compare the model with fills, costs, rule adherence, and actual outcomes. Update assumptions from a consistent sample—not one trade.
Bring the model into a rules-based workspace.
Use ORBLYTICS to review certified sessions, target hit rates, and rule-specific outcomes before deciding how an expectancy model fits your own risk plan.
Educational scenario only. Outputs use the assumptions you enter and do not predict future results. Trading involves substantial risk, and actual results may differ because of losses, slippage, fees, liquidity, taxes, changing market conditions, and execution decisions.